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2010 Summer Outlook

May 21, 2010 — Most of Canada will be enjoying a warmer and drier summer season this year, as compared to the past two years, according to The Weather Network’s recently released outlook for June, July and August.

Nearly 44 per cent of Canadians love summer – this is according to a recent poll conducted on Over 100,000 respondents were asked which season was their favourite. Fall is the second most popular season with 23 per cent of the vote.

“One of the most popular questions that I receive is ‘How will the summer be?’” said Martin Belanger, Manager of Briefing Services with The Weather Network. “The outlook for this summer is for warmer and drier conditions for most of the country as compared to the past two summers. We are forecasting temperatures to be near or slightly above normal. This represents a marked difference as the past two summers have been relatively poor in the minds of Canadians east of the Rockies with long stretches of cool, wet weather.”

El Niño: Weakening Impact
El Niño, a periodic warming of the water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean near South America, has played a role in the weather patterns affecting Canada for the past several seasons. As expected by meteorologists, the cyclical phenomenon is continuing to weaken, and as a result, will have little impact on Canadian weather patterns for the months of June, July and August.

What does “above normal” temperatures or precipitation mean?
When forecasters refer to a normal, they are talking about the mathematical average of the temperature or precipitation recorded over 30 years. To calculate the seasonal normal for the summer for a particular city, meteorologists add together all the daily average temperatures for June, July and August and divide the total by 92 (3-month period). “Above normal temperature” means that a specific area should expect the average temperature for the summer to be approximately one degree warmer than normal. The same can be applied to “above normal precipitation,” which means that a specific area should receive 30 per cent more precipitation than usual.

Regional Breakdown
British Columbia: Near normal temperatures will dominate the province. The northern coastal region of the province including the Queen Charlotte Islands can expect below normal precipitation.

Prairie Provinces: Residents of Alberta can anticipate near normal precipitation. Temperatures for most of the province will be in the normal range, with only southeastern areas of the province expected to experience above normal temperatures. Above normal temperatures and precipitation are forecasted for most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Ontario and Quebec: Near to above normal temperatures will dominate most of Ontario and Quebec. Near normal precipitation is forecast for the two provinces, with only Northwestern Ontario experiencing above normal precipitation.

Atlantic Canada: Near normal temperatures and precipitation are forecast for Atlantic Canada, with Labrador experiencing above normal temperatures for the summer months.

Northern Canada: Below normal precipitation is forecast for the northern most regions of Canada except Baffin Island. Near normal temperatures are expected for the summer for Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

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