Chris Scott, meteorologist
Hurricane Igor will impact Newfoundland. It is important not to focus too much on the track of the storm centre, which is forecast to track east of the Avalon Peninsula. Looking at a track map, it may appear that Igor will miss Newfoundland, but this is not the case as Igor will be a large storm.
As Igor begins to interact with a dip in the jet stream and cold front Monday night, the storm will begin to develop stronger winds on its west side (unlike what happened with Hurricane Earl which had relatively weak winds to the left of its track).
The strongest winds across eastern Newfoundland will be felt Tuesday afternoon and evening.
How strong could the winds be?
If the worst case scenario pans out, and the storm tracks just east of the Avalon, winds could gust to near 150 km/h across the Bonavista and Avalon Peninsulas. This would do significant damage and would cause widespread power outages.
A track slightly farther east would lessen the threat of significant damage, but would still result in strong winds.
While the wind forecast details remain tricky, we’re very confident in the heavy rain forecast.
It appears likely that 100+ mm of rain (4 inches) will fall across parts of central and eastern Newfoundland, with localized totals close to 200 mm possible. Heavy rainfall events in Newfoundland tend to turn small streams into raging rivers which can create local road washouts.
While Tuesday will be the day for wind, rain will develop well in advance of the storm centre on Monday as moisture from Igor streams north and interacts with a stalling cold front. The heaviest rain will fall Monday night into Tuesday.
Monday won’t be an overly stormy day, so people from Clarenville to Mt. Pearl will have time to make preparations for what’s to come on Tuesday.
The biggest question still to be answered is the strength of the wind on Tuesday for eastern Newfoundland. We’ll be nailing down those details on Monday as we get more confidence in the exact track of Hurricane Igor.
Be sure to check back for any Igor updates. Reporter Shelley Steeves will be on the ground in Newfoundland on Tuesday reporting live so we'll be bringing you up-to-date coverage throughout the day.