“Changeable” summer weather
Meteorologists at The Weather Network are monitoring the weakening of the La Niña weather pattern, which is set to dissipate by mid-June. As it weakens, it becomes more challenging to develop a seasonal forecast in the absence of a strong climate pattern signal. Our 2011 Summer Outlook indicates that conditions across much of the country will be changeable this summer meaning that some places could see alternating spells of warm and cool weather, while other areas will experience a typical summer season. The storm track is expected to run consistently along the 49th parallel then dipping south across the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence, which could result in more active weather from Regina to Toronto to Quebec City this summer.
“We are always watching the weather and if we see a need to provide a seasonal outlook update, we will,” explains John Mills, VP, Content and Product Management. See below for provincial and regional breakdowns.
Temperatures for the summer season are expected to be near normal for most of the province, but portions of the north/central coast could see a below normal temperature tendency. Most of the province can expect near normal precipitation with the possibility of below average values for the north coast and Queen Charlottes.
Northeastern areas will be above normal in terms of temperatures, with near normal forecast elsewhere. Precipitation is expected to average out near normal.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Northern regions of both provinces will feel above normal temperatures, while southern portions will be near normal. The southern regions can expect somewhat wetter conditions along a belt of more active weather. Most remaining areas will see near normal precipitation with the exception of northern Manitoba where a tendency for drier than average conditions are possible.
It will average out to be a normal summer in terms of temperatures in Ontario, but the far north through the Hudson Bay lowlands will trend warmer conditions; especially later in the summer. The far north and southwest tip of the province are forecast to see near normal precipitation. Wetter than normal conditions are expected elsewhere along an active storm track expected to establish itself from the Prairies eastward across eastern Ontario into southern Quebec for part of the summer. With such a set up, more pronounced changes in temperatures and weather conditions alternating over a period of one to three days or so will impact these parts.
The southern and central regions will experience near normal temperatures, but warmer than normal temperatures are likely for the northern areas of the province. Wetter than normal conditions are forecast in the southern and central Quebec regions straddling much of the St. Lawrence valley along that active storm track coming out of Ontario. Elsewhere, near normal precipitation is expected for most of the province.
It will be a normal summer for the Maritimes and Newfoundland in terms of temperatures and precipitation though extreme northwestern New Brunswick could be on the wetter side.
Near normal temperatures are likely for the Yukon and most of the Northwest Territories and into northwest Nunavut. Warmer conditions are expected for the rest of Nunavut and the southeast section of the N.W.T. The Yukon, adjacent southern and western areas of the N.W.T along with eastern and northern Nunavut will see near normal precipitation, but it will be drier than normal elsewhere.
|City||Temperature Forecast||Precipitation Forecast||Average temperatures||Average Precipitation|
|Vancouver||Near normal||Near normal||High 21|
|Calgary||Near normal||Near normal||High 22|
|Edmonton||Near normal||Near normal||High 22|
|Regina||Near normal||Above normal||High 25|
|Saskatoon||Near normal||Above normal||High 24|
|Winnipeg||Near normal||Above normal||High 25|
|Thunder Bay||Near normal||Above normal||High 23|
|Ottawa||Near normal||Above normal||High 25|
|Toronto||Near normal||Above normal||High 26|
|Montreal||Near normal||Above normal||High 25|
|Fredericton||Near normal||Near normal||High 24|
|Charlottetown||Near normal||Near normal||High 22|
|Halifax||Near normal||Near normal||High 22|
|St. John's||Near normal||Near normal||High 19|
|Iqaluit||Above normal||Near normal||High 10|
|Yellowknife||Near normal||Below normal||High 19|
|Whitehorse||Near normal||Near normal||High 19|