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Winter Outlook 2011 / 2012


November 28, 2011 — The winter of 2011 / 2012 will be a 'typical' one across much of the country. Canadians can expect a similar winter to last year with the re-emergence of La Niña. Find out more as The Weather Network meteorologists release their outlook for December 2011 and January and February 2012.


2011 / 2012 Winter Precipitation Outlook
2011 / 2012 Winter Precipitation Outlook

Meteorologists at The Weather Network say Canadians could face a similar winter to last year with the potential for some extremes in weather. The La Niña weather pattern is likely to produce episodes of contrasting temperature extremes from one side of the country to the other. Day-to-day large temperature swings across southern areas will be more frequent than usual initially, but later in the winter, lengthier periods of off average temperatures could lock in. There will also be the tendency for sporadic big rain or snow events and windier than average conditions. See below for provincial and regional breakdowns.

British Columbia
Temperatures for the winter season are expected to be below normal for northern and central BC, while the south coastal areas and interior will be near normal. Most of the province can expect near normal precipitation, but the south interior and coastal BC will be wetter than usual with more snow than average at higher elevations.

Alberta and Saskatchewan
Northern and central areas in both provinces will be below normal in terms of temperatures and the southern regions will be near normal. Though southern Alberta will have some deep cold spells there will be rounds of pronounced Chinooks with abnormally mild weather arithmetically balancing temperatures out near normal. Both provinces can also expect near normal precipitation.

Manitoba
The northwest and central regions close to the Saskatchewan border will feel below normal temperatures, while the rest of the province will be near normal. The entire province can expect near normal precipitation this season.

Ontario
Wintery weather will be off to a later than average start in southern sections. Temperatures will be above normal extending east of Lake Superior through the Nickel-Belt and Ottawa valley and south across the Lower Great Lakes. Near normal temperatures will be felt elsewhere and the entire province can expect near normal precipitation. Southern sections will likely have more frequent than usual changeovers from snow to rain, especially during the first month or so of winter. Such changeovers can bring an increased risk of freezing rain.

Quebec
The southern tip of the province and Eastern Townships will experience milder than normal temperatures, while the rest of Quebec will be near normal. Precipitation across the province will be near normal. Like southern Ontario, extreme southern Quebec runs the risk of more frequent than usual changeovers from snow to rain with a given storm, especially early in the season.

Atlantic Canada
It will be a normal winter for most of the region in terms of temperatures and precipitation. Southern Nova Scotia including the Halifax and Dartmouth area will be warmer than normal.

The North
Below normal temperatures will be felt in the Yukon, Northwest Territories and southwest tip of Nunavut with precipitation close to the long-term mean. Near normal temperatures and precipitation will be felt elsewhere.

Regional Breakdown – Precipitation
CityTemperature ForecastPrecipitation ForecastAverage temperaturesAverage Precipitation
VancouverNear normalAbove normalHigh 7
Low 1
Mean 4
452 mm
VictoriaNear normalAbove normalHigh 7
Low 1
Mean 4
396 mm
CalgaryNear normalNear normalHigh -1
Low -14
Mean -8
33 mm
EdmontonBelow normalNear normalHigh -6
Low -17
Mean -12
53 mm
ReginaNear normalNear normalHigh -8
Low -19
Mean -14
43 mm
SaskatoonBelow normalNear normalHigh -10
Low -20
Mean -15
41 mm
WinnipegNear normalNear normalHigh -10
Low -20
Mean -15
53 mm
Thunder BayNear normalNear normalHigh -7
Low -19
Mean -13
94 mm
SudburyAboveNear normalHigh -7
Low -16
Mean -12
186 mm
OttawaAboveNear normalHigh -5
Low -14
Mean -9
211 mm
TorontoAbove normalNear normalHigh -1
Low -9
Mean -5
156 mm
WindsorAbove normalNear normalHigh 0
Low -7
Mean -3
190 mm
MontrealAbove normalNear normalHigh -4
Low -13
Mean -8
221 mm
FrederictonNear normalNear normalHigh -2
Low -14
Mean -8
297 mm
MonctonNear normalNear normalHigh -2
Low -13
Mean -8
328 mm
CharlottetownNear normalNear normalHigh -2
Low -11
Mean -7
315 mm
HalifaxAbove normalNear normalHigh 0
Low -9
Mean -5
418 mm
St. John'sNear normalNear normalHigh 0
Low -8
Mean -4
424 mm
IqaluitNear normalNear normalHigh -22
Low -30
Mean -26
54 mm
YellowknifeBelow normalNear normalHigh -20
Low -29
Mean -25
43 mm
WhitehorseBelow normalNear normalHigh -11
Low -20
Mean -15
47 mm

For another look at the 2011 / 2012 Winter Outlook, tune into The Weather Network on TV.

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